Note: I wrote this at school this morning between about 8 and 9am during my prep periods. I don't particularly feel like reading it over right now, so there's a good chance it's a bit rambling, but it is also genuine.
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I am worried.
This is not something that I say lightly because I generally don’t think worrying serves much of a purpose.
If you can do something about what you are worrying about, then do it.
If you can’t, then don’t worry about it.
Simplistic, maybe, but it is generally how I operate.
That being said, I am worried about the economy and the greater state of global economic affairs and there isn’t one darn thing I can do about it.
Locally, I am worried about how an economic downturn will affect Sarah and I. We are doing better than many, but that doesn’t mean that we are necessarily all that far from money trouble. Mortgage, a big-assed pile of student loans, paying off a new (to us) car, driving another car that is definitely showing its age, plenty of other monthly bills… it is quite a lot of money that is leaving our pockets. I/we have been looking forward to the day that I get my own teaching job. When that happens, I will easily be making more than I ever have and will more than double what I am bringing in now. But if we suffer a serious economic downturn, could that reduce my chances for a job? It probably wouldn’t, since kids will still need to be taught, but it is something of a concern. Could it jeopardize Sarah’s job? I don’t know. I will leave it to Sarah to talk about her company should she choose to do so. But should something happen to her job or mine, that could spell trouble.
All signs right now are pointing to recession. This morning, the Fed announced a .75% reduction in interest rates when no meeting for the Fed was scheduled. This follows a weekend where the international markets have tanked. It sounds like the U.S. markets are going to probably follow their example despite the interest rate cut. So it looks as though the economy is going to slow even more. Combine that with a huge rate cut and it appears we have a recession combined with a good chance for inflation. Splendid. Just what we need, higher prices for our consumables.
I am listening to NPR right now and they’ve got it right in analyzing what the Fed is thinking. They have two worries, inflation and growth. With this rate cut they are saying that they’ll worry about inflation later ‘cause growth is more important in getting the economy on track. This is where my quieter, yet more ominous worry lays.
Our economy is based on consumption and growth. Says the market news, “GigantoCorp’s stock went down fifteen percent today because their quarterly earnings didn’t meet projections.” The U.S. was built on the foundation of the marketplace and growth. Our prosperity is based on buying cars, and MP3 players, non-stick fry pans, Go-gurt, designer clothing, McMansions and Levitra. If we don’t continue to buy, the economy suffers. So we buy more and more and more, often times crap we really don’t need. But we buy it ‘cause we are told to buy it and because we feel it will make our lives better. The problem is that an economy based on growth is an awful lot like a pyramid scheme, it can only grow so much before it collapses. It is remarkable that our economy has grown as much as it has in the last 500 years, but it just can not continue. We are approaching a point where more Best Buys can not be built, more oil can not be pumped, and more bauxite can not be mined ‘cause there just aren’t any more consumers and there is a finite amount of raw resources.
One of my concerns is that we have reached too far, economically. One of these days I believe there will have to be some serious pruning of our recent growth, or it may die back in ways we like even less. I believe that despite our amazing economic history and growth we wrongly went down the path of capitalist and growth economics long ago. Not that it probably seemed like there was any other option at the time, but those smart choices in the past have lead to the unsustainable economy of today. In the last ten years or so as I learned more and more about economics, resources, and the state of affairs I have believed that this capitalist system needed to change.
My worry is that even though I want a revolution to come, I am comfortable where I am. Changing our economy away from growth and profit to something more sustainable is impossible, in my view, without supremely painful changes that probably wouldn’t be resolved for years, if not decades. I can’t even imagine what it would take to change our economic system away from capital and growth to something healthier. That change would take a near reversal of attitudes by everyone. I don’t want to give up my bike and outdoors gear any less than the folks in suburbia want to give up their Audis and Prada. It’s going to happen one way or another though… whether it happens tomorrow, ten years from now, or whether it is somehow postponed for a hundred years.
I’m not sure I want to see the likely anarchy that would result. I suppose I will put on a mask of ignorance like everyone else. I suppose I will buy into the stimulus package that the president, presidential candidates, and congress all support to stimulate more consumption and march blindly towards the precipice.
I wish I knew how to grow and hunt for my own food and build my own shelter.